President Barack Obama
says the United States has "high confidence" that Syria used chemical
weapons -- the strongest position the U.S. can take short of
confirmation.
Britain, France, and Germany say their intelligence backs up the same conclusion.
But despite all the talk
about conclusive intelligence, questions remain. A declassified report
by the White House does not divulge all details of the evidence the
United States is looking at. And it remains unclear what the "streams of
intelligence" cited in the report may be and how they were collected.
Russia insists there's no proof. Russian President Vladimir Putin said he wants to see evidence that would make the determination "obvious."
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And Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime says rebel forces were behind any chemical weapons attack.
The United Nations, meanwhile, is calling on world leaders to wait for the results of a U.N. probe.
Here's a look at what is known about the intelligence Washington points to.
"We have declassified
unprecedented amounts of information, and we ask the American people and
the rest of the world to judge that information," Kerry told lawmakers
Tuesday.
It "proves the Assad
regime prepared for this attack, issued instruction to prepare for this
attack, warned its own forces to use gas masks."
Physical, "concrete"
evidence shows where the rockets came from, when they were fired, and
that not one landed in regime-controlled territory, Kerry said.
"Multiple streams of
intelligence indicate that the regime executed a rocket and artillery
attack against the Damascus suburbs in the early hours of August 21,"
the White House says in the declassified report.
"Satellite detections
corroborate that attacks from a regime-controlled area struck
neighborhoods where the chemical attacks reportedly occurred. ... The
lack of flight activity or missile launches also leads us to conclude
that the regime used rockets in the attack."
The White House released a map along with the report.
But the prospect of more
details on the evidence seems dim as Kerry said the amount already
declassified "could possibly put at risk some sources and methods," and
that releasing more could "tempt fate."
U.S.: Opposition doesn't have 'the capacity'
"We are certain that
none of the opposition has the weapons or capacity to effect a strike of
this scale, particularly from the heart of regime territory," Kerry
told lawmakers Tuesday.
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The White House report
points to Syria's known stockpiles of chemical agents. And it says the
United States assesses "with high confidence that the Syrian regime has
used chemical weapons on a small scale against the opposition multiple
times in the last year, including in the Damascus suburbs. This
assessment is based on multiple streams of information including
reporting of Syrian officials planning and executing chemical weapons
attacks and laboratory analysis of physiological samples obtained from a
number of individuals, which revealed exposure to sarin.
"We assess that the opposition has not used chemical weapons."
In May, a U.N. official said there were strong suspicions
that Syrian rebel forces had used sarin gas. But the findings were not
conclusive, the U.N. Independent International Commission of Inquiry for
Syria said at the time, and the opposition Syrian Coalition condemned
any use of chemical weapons. The U.S. State Department said at the time
it had no evidence suggesting rebels had used chemical weapons.
The Russian Foreign
Ministry said Wednesday the results of an investigation into a March
attack in Aleppo, apparently using chemical weapons, found that the
charge used was homemade and similar to projectiles produced by the
group Bashaar al-Nasr, part of the opposition Syrian Islamic Liberation
Front. Sarin was discovered in samples from the scene, the foreign
ministry said.
Bashaar al-Nasr has slammed Syria for the recent chemical weapons attack in Damascus, and vowed revenge.
U.S.: Syria prepared
"In the three days prior
to the attack, we collected streams of human, signals and geospatial
intelligence that reveal regime activities that we assess were
associated with preparations for a chemical weapons attack," the U.S.
report says.
"Syrian chemical weapons
personnel were operating in the Damascus suburb of 'Adra from Sunday,
August 18 until early in the morning on Wednesday, August 21 near an
area that the regime uses to mix chemical weapons, including sarin. On
August 21, a Syrian regime element prepared for a chemical weapons
attack in the Damascus area, including through the utilization of gas
masks. Our intelligence sources in the Damascus area did not detect any
indications in the days prior to the attack that opposition affiliates
were planning to use chemical weapons."
'Intercepted communications'
"We have a body of
information, including past Syrian practice, that leads us to conclude
that regime officials were witting of and directed the attack on August
21," the U.S. report says. "We intercepted communications involving a
senior official intimately familiar with the offensive who confirmed
that chemical weapons were used by the regime on August 21 and was
concerned with the U.N. inspectors obtaining evidence."
Intelligence shows
Syrian chemical weapons personnel were told to cease operations in the
afternoon of August 21, and that the regime then "intensified the
artillery barrage targeting many of the neighborhoods where chemical
attacks occurred," the report says.
Analyst: 'No way in hell' U.S. can back up death toll
The U.S. report says a
preliminary assessment "determined that 1,429 people were killed in the
chemical weapons attack, including at least 426 children."
The assessment "will certainly evolve as we obtain more information," it adds.
"Secretary Kerry seems
to have been sandbagged into using an absurdly over-precise number,"
said Anthony Cordesman, former director of intelligence assessment at
the U.S. Defense Department.
Now with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, he writes on the CSIS website, "Put simply, there is no way in hell the U.S. intelligence community could credibly have made an estimate this exact."
It's unclear whether
"these figures really had an intelligence source," Cordesman said .
"Some sources indicate they may have actually come from a Syrian source
called the Local Coordination Committees (LCC)" -- a Syrian opposition
group.
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A U.S. official told CNN
the number is not based on opposition figures. The methodology used to
come up with the toll remains classified.
Rebel leaders have given similar estimates for the death toll, saying more than 1,300 people were killed.
Britain's Joint Intelligence Organization, meanwhile, says at least 350 people were killed. It does not say how the figure was determined.
A French government report
notes that body counts by several sources, including Doctors Without
Borders, estimated at least 355 deaths. "Other technical counts, using
different sources, estimate the toll to be around 1,500 deaths," the
report says.
Britain, France, Germany weigh in
A letter from Jon Day,
chairman of Britain's Joint Intelligence Committee, to British Prime
Minister David Cameron, also rejects suggestions that the opposition may
have been behind the attack.
"We have tested this
assertion using a wide range of intelligence and open sources, and
invited (the government) and outside experts to help us establish
whether such a thing is possible," Day wrote.
No "credible
intelligence" suggests the opposition has chemical weapons, he writes,
adding that "there are no plausible alternative scenarios to regime
responsibility."
"We also have a limited
but growing body of intelligence which supports the judgment that the
regime was responsible for the attacks and that they were conducted to
help clear the opposition from strategic parts of Damascus. Some of this
intelligence is highly sensitive but you have had access to it all."
France gives a similar argument.
"The attack of August
21st could only have been ordered and carried out by the regime," its
declassified intelligence report says.
Germany's foreign intelligence agency, the BND, has the same assessment.
"In a secret briefing to
select lawmakers on Monday, BND head Gerhard Schindler said that while
there is still no incontestable proof, analysis of the evidence at hand
has led his intelligence service to believe that Assad's regime is to
blame," Der Spiegel reports.
U.N. probe: Limited scope, no clear deadline
The United Nations is
pushing all nations to hold off on any action until results of its own
examination are in. It's unclear how soon that may be.
"The U.N. mission is
uniquely capable of establishing in an impartial and credible manner the
facts of any use of chemical weapons," Martin Nesirky, spokesman for
Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, said repeatedly at a news conference
Sunday.
But the U.N. probe's mandate is only to determine whether chemical weapons were used -- not by whom.
Obama argued Wednesday
that that's no longer in question. "Frankly, nobody is really disputing
that chemical weapons were used," he said.
Russia - which, along
with China, would likely block any U.N. resolution authorizing military
action in Syria -- has repeatedly thrown cold water on suggestions that
there's proof of Syria culpability.
"If there are data that
the chemical weapons have been used, and used specifically by the
regular army, this evidence should be submitted to the U.N. Security
Council," Putin said Wednesday in an interview with The Associated Press
and Russia's state Channel 1 television.
"It should be a deep and
specific probe containing evidence that would be obvious and prove
beyond doubt who did it and what means were used."
If there was such evidence, Russia might support a resolution authorizing military strikes, Putin said.
Syria: Allegations 'false and unfounded'
Syria still insists it never used chemical weapons.
"These allegations are false and unfounded," Syria's U.N. Ambassador Bashar al-Ja'afari said Tuesday in an interview with CNN.
He cited the confidence
that the United States said it had a decade ago when it argued that Iraq
had weapons of mass destruction.
It's an argument Kerry was prepared for before Congress on Tuesday.
He noted that he and Hagel were senators at the time of the Iraq vote.
"And so we are
especially sensitive, Chuck and I, to never again asking any member of
Congress to take a vote on faulty intelligence. And that is why our
intelligence community has scrubbed and re-scrubbed the evidence."
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